Esto me pareció muy interesante… para los usuarios de PC quizá no tan realista, pero en todo caso interesante. No me voy a tomar la molestia de traducirlo, además estoy seguro de que nuestros lectores dominan el inglés a la perfección

A look at Microsoft’s prospects for the future
by James R. Stoup

Many years from now analysts will look back, draw a mark on a timeline and say, “Here it is, the beginning of the fall of Microsoft.” But don’t think for a second that MS is going to collapse in a week or two. Oh no, we couldn’t be so lucky, it’s going to take some time. You see, much like the Roman empire, MS is going to take a while to completely crumble. And even if they do fall there is no guarantee that they won’t pick themselves of up start over. Or, more likely, something different will arise from their ashes and a new company with an old name will start to compete in the market place.

But where will that mark be? When will historians peg the start of their fall? Personally, I feel it to be in about a year and a half into the future. When Longhorn comes out, and fails to be everything MS hoped it would be, that is where you can draw your line. That is where Microsoft had the chance to reassert their domination and instead they pissed their chances away. Longhorn is going to be a big disappointment to a lot of people. And when all of those people realize it’s time to upgrade, they might just look somewhere else.

Looking at the entire spectrum of Microsoft’s business this is how I see things playing out. Here are they main areas MS competes in, let’s try and predict where they will be in the near future.

Desktop Space– Let’s look at the easiest one first. This is where MS has the most dominating presence and thus this is where they will loose the most market share. I think that the halo effect is just one factor in what will be seen as the Mac resurgence. Thus I imagine Apple will gain the most from MS’s problems. Though Windows will still remain the dominant OS it will be nothing like the 90’s. In a distant third will be desktop Linux. Lets face it, anyone who isn’t a power user isn’t going to adopt Linux. And don’t start in with this “my grandmother uses Linux” crap ok? Because when something goes wrong with her machine she isn’t the one who scours the message boards and forums looking for a solution, no, that job goes to you.
Bottom Line: Safe for the moment but loses imminent

Server Space– The tide has already begun to turn here. More and more companies are realizing that Linux is the way to go if they want a cheap, reliable server setup. I can’t imagine this trend ending anytime soon regardless of how many Microsoft sponsored “impartial investigations” are published.
Bottom Line: Losing ground

Office Software– Momentum alone should make this the most stable of all their offerings. So, when all else fails I think they can return to their roots if need be and still make a lot of money off of the Office Suite. And as much as I hate Office and would like to see it replaced with a cleaner product, it is still the de facto standard for businesses. So, I don’t see it getting replaced anytime soon.
Bottom Line: Dominant for foreseeable future

Online Music – This is where MS really lost out. And guess what? They are never going to dominate this industry like they did the operating system world. Apple has too big a lead on this one for MS to get much of a foothold. But let us assume for a moment that MS actually managed to produce a music player as good as iTunes. Let us further assume that they tie it together with a music store that is as easy to use as the ITMS is. Even if they manage to accomplish these rather difficult tasks they would still lose because of the iPod factor. Now, if MS decided to enter the fray like it did with the Xbox then they might have a chance, but how many years down the road would that be? 2? 5? That’s a lot of momentum from Apple to try and overcome.
Bottom Line: No real presence in the market

Online Movies– They have a chance here to do what they couldn’t do with online music. Having said that I am confident that they will drop the ball again. Right now MS might be thinking that this whole movie thing could turn out to be popular. Apple is already prepping a movie service (just like iTunes) and a home entertainment device (just like the iPod) for yet another 1-2 punch that will propel it further into the media business. Can MS do something similar, probably. Could they do something similar, with as much style, that will be as easy to use in the short time they have? No chance in hell.
Bottom Line: Here is another missed opportunity

Video Games– The Xbox really only had two “killer” games, Halo and Halo 2. The machine itself was powerful, but not overly impressive and the Xbox online service has promise. There was just one problem with this whole product line, it was losing money left and right. MS took a hit with every Xbox they sold. Now, I actually understand their thinking behind that approach and applaud them for having the balls to loose so much money in hopes of getting market share. However, at some point your product has to start making money or else what’s the point? So, with that in mind take a look at the Xbox 360. It has a chance of capturing even more market share and actually turning a profit. However, that will only occur if the first game released for the Xbox 360 is Halo 3. In fact, that decision should be a no brainer. When commercials start running hyping up the XB3, the first images you should see are the Master Chief killing some aliens in startlingly vivid 3D. Anything other that and people won’t care. I know plenty of folks out there only bought a Xbox because of the Halo series. It’s their strongest card and they would be fools not to play it first and often. Of course, we should also remember Nintendo, kings of the video game industry until Sony came in and ho-smacked to the floor. Nintendo lost its position for the same reason every other console maker lost or gained their status: games. That’s it. Ultimately people don’t care about playing DVDs, listening to music, running an OS, getting online etc. they care about the games. And the company that makes the best games is going to win regardless of what hardware they are running.
Bottom Line: If they follow up with Halo 3 and continue to make quality games they have a better than even shot of becoming the next Sony

Search– As far as online search goes Google owns this sector. Let’s just cut through the MS FUD here for a moment, shall we, and admit that Microsoft is hopelessly outclassed here. Gates & Co. have been talking for a while now about how MSN is going to take the search engine field by storm. To that I have to say “put up or shut up”. I have yet to see anything that would make Google do more than yawn. And plenty of people have said that Longhorn will have Internet search built into it and thus MS will win by default. I think not. Just because they have it built in doesn’t mean the search engine itself is better than Google’s. People are going to go with what they know, like and trust. Guess what, right now that isn’t MS. Same thing goes for the desktop search. If they made something like Spotlight I would be worried, until then their best, as usual, isn’t very good.
Bottom Line: Still getting spanked by Google with no end in sight

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Tecnología

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